U.S. Hurricane Landfall Predictions (2013 Forecast)
Dale Link has been issuing his personal predictions of hurricane landfalls for the United States Gulf of Mexico coastline for 15 years and for the Atlantic for the past 23 years. (Forecast links for 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 are at the bottom of this page - click here) A summary of his prediction accuracy is set forth below:
For the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastline from Brownsville, TX to Key West, FL (1,500 mile range) over a 15 year period between 1998 and 2012, 16 hurricanes made landfall with hurricane intensity (1.07 hurricanes/yr.). In three of those 15 years, Link forecasted there would be zero hurricane landfalls. All three of those years had zero hurricane landfalls (100% correct forecasting). In the remaining 12 years, Link forecasted 18 hurricane landfall zones (with a 320-380 mile range). Ten of those zones had hurricane landfalls (56% correct forecasting) and eight zones had tropical storm/depression landfalls (44%). Also during this 15 year period, 13 hurricanes landed with hurricane strength inside Link's predicted landfall zones (81%) and three landed outside his predicted zones (19%).
For the U.S. Atlantic coastline from Key West, FL to Lubec, MA (1,800 mile range) over a 23 year period between 1985 and 2012, 13 hurricanes made landfall with hurricane intensity (0.59 hurricanes/yr.). In 15 of those 23 years, Link forecasted there would be zero hurricane landfalls. Eleven of those years actually had zero hurricane landfalls (73% correct forecasting) and four had hurricane landfalls (27% incorrect). In the remaining nine years, Link forecasted 11 hurricane landfall zones (with a 300 mile range). Six of those zones had hurricane landfalls (55% correct forecasting) and four had tropical storm/depression landfalls (36%) and one had zero landfalls (9%). Also during this 23 year period, seven hurricanes landed with hurricane strength inside Link's landfall zones (54%) and six landed outside his predicted zones (46%).
Link acknowledges the occasional "total miss" for hurricane landfalls in areas where he has not forecasted a landfall. This has occurred on average once every 5.0 years in the Gulf and once every 5.8 years in the Atlantic. Nevertheless, the accuracy of his predictions speaks for itself. The last hurricane to make landfall outside of his predicted zones in the Gulf was Wilma (2005) and in the Atlantic was Isabel (2003).
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