Dale Link has been issuing his personal predictions of hurricane landfalls for the United States Atlantic coastline for the past 21 years and for the Gulf of Mexico coastline for the past 13 years. (Forecast links for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 are at the bottom of this page - click here) A summary of his prediction accuracy is set forth below:
For the U.S. Atlantic coastline from Lubec,
MA to Key West, FL
(1,800 mile range) over a 21 year period between 1985 and 2010, twelve
hurricanes made landfall with hurricane intensity (0.57
hurricanes/yr.). In 14 of those 21 years, Link forecasted there would
be zero hurricane landfalls. Ten of those years actually had zero
hurricane landfalls (77% correct forecasting) and in four of those years
there were hurricane landfalls (23% incorrect). In the remaining seven
years, Link forecasted ten hurricane landfall zones (with a 300 mile
range). Five of those zones had hurricane landfalls (50% correct
forecasting). Four zones had tropical storm landfalls (40%) and one
zone had zero landfalls (10%). Also during this 21 year period,
six
hurricanes landed inside Link's landfall zones (50%) and six landed
outside his predicted zones (50%).
For the
U.S. Gulf of Mexico
coastline from Key West, FL to
Brownsville, TX
(1,500 mile range) over a 13 year period between 1998 and 2010, fifteen
hurricanes made landfall with hurricane intensity (1.15
hurricanes/yr.). In three of those 13 years, Link forecasted there
would be zero hurricane landfalls. All three of those years had zero
hurricane landfalls (100% correct forecasting). In the remaining 10
years, Link forecasted 16 hurricane landfall zones (with a 320-380 mile range). Nine of those zones had hurricanes make
landfall (56% correct forecasting) and seven zones had
tropical storms make landfall (44%). Also during this 13 year
period, twelve hurricanes landed inside Link's
predicted landfall zones (80%) and three landed outside his predicted zones (20%).
Link acknowledges the occasional "total miss"
for hurricane landfalls in areas where he has not forecasted a
landfall. This has occurred on average once every 4.3 years in the Gulf
and once every 5.3 years in the Atlantic. Nevertheless, the accuracy of
his predictions speaks for itself.